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Public Pad Latest text of pad cthx7l5DTy Saved Oct 14, 2013

imer: This is much more speculative than any of our other informational mediums. Information on this page might be wrong.
Authorship colors: 
  • Dylan
  • Mike
  • Dan
  • Brendan
  • Max
  • Tom
Why this page? [Sticky]
    We created this page because we felt that we were torn between posting speculative opinionish things and keeping everyone up to date. A good example of this is what happened with Scout's tracking a few days ago- she stopped responding but we were working to bring her backup tracker online, but were waiting to write a post/send an email to the mailing list (you can sign up for that on our homepage) until after we knew whether the backup tracker was working at all (our goal is not to post so many things that people get overwhelmed and don't read them at all.) Anyways, this page should solve a bunch of problems because we'd love to make our thoughts and speculations available to you guys, especially those of you who want to hear them; we just haven't really had a great medium to do that through in the past, and usually try to stay on the non-speculative side of things.
Helpful links that we use on this page:
10/14/13 - Westward.  
Good thing she isn't floating along to the north- I'd rather have Scout's funeral be in Puerto Rico than Greenland any day. We'll have to fly down to pay our respects.....
10/11/13 - Westward?  
Scout appears to be adrift and moving fully with the seas at this point.  It has had a couple of sunny days to recharge if those systems were working working.  The best guess at this point is some sort of electical or software failure onboard with the Arduino processors.  It is going to be very difficult to pinpoint the actual failure until we (hopefully) recover the boat.  Anyone know the weather in the Azores mid-winter?  Anyone know anyone with a boat in the Azores?
10/8 - Southeast movement
JD asked for an update. I gave them a synopsis of we believe it could be drifting because of the hook but could also be running because it is fighting the waves etc.
16:41 - Winds seem to be pushing south in some sort of interesting weather formation, 20-30 knots. Speeds over the last 24 hours have been somewhere between 1.5 - 2 miles per hour over ground and just under 1mph VMG.
10/7/13 - Tracking Update
1931 - The southeast movement was expected due to 10-13' seas and high winds both out of the north/west.  Still very difficult to say whether she's motoring or not.  Tune into the live chat tomorrow night to hear us discussing our thoughts!
10/6/13 - Slow Movement Eastward
11:55 - At Scout's location, the sun sets around 4:40 PM Eastern TIme, and rises around 5:15 AM Eastern, so this last period of movement was almost entirely "in the dark".  Scout moved at just over a mile per hour in a direction just slightly north of east.  The speed of movement indicates fully adrift.  If this speed continues through what is predicted to be a very sunny day at Scout's location, it would be my assumption that Scout is not actively motoring and is at the mercy of the seas. 
10/5/13 - New Tracking Data
16:54 - Scout is still headed South/Southeast at about 2.5 mph.  Difficult to really tell what's going on but it's a fair guess that Scout is fully adrift and completely at the mercy of the wind and waves.  Also in case anyone noticed the updates are not instantaneous, the new tracking system requires us to manually add data points to the database, so there may be delays getting the latest data up.
10/4: New tracking data
It seems that Scout has taken a turn ESE. Tracking map updated as of 4:17am. 
Overnight movement makes sense according to wind and wave action-- still waiting for the waves or the wind to be against scout's intended path to see if Scout is motoring or drifting.  
Scout is closer to the Azores than Rhode Island.
Map updated at 16:09, Scout headed farther ESE. Her speeds for the last two or so days have always been over 2mph averaged over 12 hours, which is interesting. One would think that she should be trying to head farther north if she was under power.
10/3: New tracking data
Scout made it 24 miles in the last 12 hours- probably because of the wind behind her (during the first month of the voyage she rarely made such good time halfway through the night.) She's definitely starting to see earlier sunsets, but that doesn't really matter until we figure out if she's motoring on her own or sitting dead in the water. RX 4:16AM eastern. P2P course and distance attached, along with a sunstate grab.
2:41 pm eastern (all of this is in eastern time btw) and the wind is still pushing up NNE, I'd imagine the next point we get is up there somewhere. Definitely more suspenseful only hearing back every 12 hours...
1607 Eastern.  Anxiously awaiting the ~1615 tracking packet!  If Scout has moved ENE and more than 1-2 MPH that may indicate Scout is motoring....   Scout should be getting a lot of help from 25-35 knot winds out of the WNW, and 3-4 meter waves traveling almost due east... Maybe the sea state will knock the other transmitter back into action?  Here's to hoping!
17:04- here is the google map with course & distance between the two latest points. It's already starting to get dark out there... http://www.gotransat.com/breaking/images/scoutposition7.png
She's traveled 19.2 miles over the last 12 hours (although during the 4am-7:30/8am hours Scout was usually asleep, so if we ignore those, 19.2 miles over 8 hours, the average speed is 2.4mph.) However, it's still difficult to tell if Scout is moving under her own power or if it's the wind and waves pushing her in that direction at that speed. Sometime tonight or tomorrow I'll try to get around to doing the math to see what course Scout should want to take; we can then maybe fit a line to it and see how far off the ideal course she is (a good indicator of whether or not she's moving under her own power would be the correlation between course to the waypoint and COG, but unfortunately with the limited amount of data coming back to us, it'll be difficult to tell for a while).  Currently Scout has the aid of both the wind and waves at her stern.  If either of these change and Scout continues eastward, we can surmise she is motoring.
Also fun to note how ridiculously close Scout is to the Titanic-- just about 2.5 miles away from the bow section.
10/2: New tracking data
    We were able to get the backup tracker online today, and the initial point transmission showed Scout as being 80 miles South of her last self-reported position (reported four days previously.) She was SSW of that last point (map of this point available at http://www.gotransat.com/breaking/images/firsttx.png ). This backup tracker transmits every 12 hours, so we waited until 4:30pm (the other transmission being at 4:30am) to find the second point (and one that had been somehow archived on the third party tracking software) which gave us this map: http://www.gotransat.com/breaking/images/scs2.png which shows that Scout is headed ENE, albeit slowly. I haven't taken a look yet at where the current and wind is pushing Scout- if it is in the same direction as she's moving, it's probable that the favorable CMG that we're seeing is just the wind pushing Scout around. However, if the current and wind is more than 90 degrees off of Scout's stern, Scout might be moving under her own power. We'll know more over the next few days once we get more packets (we get them at 1/36th the frequency as we used to.)
    Tom set up the tracking page to display the latest points that are reported through the backup tracker; these points are displayed in pink instead of the usual colorization (the backup tracker sends position only.)
Check the HDW Low layer (wind from surface to 10,000 feet, measured with cloud movement from satellite) http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-vis.html - indicates that the wind is basically from the SW
The distance between Scout's 3rd and 4th back up transmissions is pretty far east for just drift, ~ 20-25 miles.  Hopefully she's woken up!
waves/current headed that way too? http://passageweather.com/
JD Asked for an update on scouts prIgress.